Happy Father’s Day!

No Value Pick of the week this week.

Before we get to the market summary for the past week, I’d like to revisit the Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM), which I first mentioned a little over six months ago, on December 14, 2025. Quite frankly, if it weren’t for the fact that it’s 100% invested in a single segment of the larger economy, which is never a good idea, we could buy nothing but QTUM and be good. Sure, it’s unlikely to jump 1,326% in 44 months like Nvidia (NVDA), but it’s up 47.8% over the past 6 months and beating the S&P 500 by 37.9%. That’s better than most companies.

Market Summary

The markets were closed on Friday for the Juneteenth holiday, so the index’s 0.9% weekly gain was compressed into four trading sessions rather than five.

  • A U.S.-Iran peace deal was the dominant catalyst — stocks soared and oil prices tumbled at the opening bell on Monday after Trump announced a deal to end U.S.-Iran hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The Fed’s forward guidance spooked markets mid-week — the S&P 500 gave up the Monday gains after the Fed meeting pointed to a possible rate hike in late 2026.
  • The Iran deal was formally signed on Friday — Trump signed the U.S.-Iran agreement at the Palace of Versailles in France alongside the Iranian President, and the U.S. confirmed the naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz had been lifted.
  • The S&P 500 rose 1.1% on Friday — and the Nasdaq climbed nearly 2% as chip stocks fueled the comeback.

How Our Picks Fared

Our past picks lost 1.1% to the S&P 500, with energy companies leading the way down as oil prices dropped below $80 per barrel for the first time since March 3, 2026: Exxon Mobil (XOM, −6.3%), ConocoPhillips (COP, −7.9%), Devon Energy (DVN, −7.0%), and Targa Resources (TRGP, −5.1%).

Other notable movers:

📉 CACI International (CACI) fell 10.2%

  • The drop continued a multi-month pattern of valuation concerns combined with decelerating growth at the defense and IT services contractor.
  • The core concern was that CACI’s projected fiscal 2026 growth decelerated to just 4–6%, down sharply from the 9% organic growth seen in fiscal 2025 — that growth deceleration narrative continued to weigh on sentiment.
  • Despite the longer-term track record being strong, the stock’s short-term momentum has clearly faded, with technical indicators showing a sustained downtrend.
  • Even after the pullback, Simply Wall St flagged CACI as potentially 34.2% undervalued, a good sign for buy-and-hold investors.

📉 Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) fell ~10.1%

  • The primary catalyst was an analyst downgrade — Citi downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral, even as the analyst’s own price target rose slightly.
  • The downgrade was a valuation call rather than a view on market direction — the analyst’s report noted shipment data and manufacturing sentiment indices continue to show improvement, but much of the good news already appeared priced into the stock, which was still up over 40% year-to-date heading into the call.
  • This created an unusual dynamic where the freight fundamentals were genuinely improving — May 2026 LTL operating metrics showed revenue per day up 12.3% year-over-year — yet the stock sold off anyway.

📈 Western Digital (WDC) rose ~32.6%

  • This was the week’s standout story — a cascading wave of bullish catalysts compounding on each other.
  • Multiple analysts (Citi, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Mizuho) cited continued AI-led demand strength paired with solid industry supply discipline supporting sustainable pricing power.
  • The fundamental backdrop supporting all these upgrades was strong — Q3 FY2026 revenue was up 45% YoY, gross margin above 50%, a 20% dividend increase, all while HDD capacity is fully committed for 2026, backed by multi-year agreements through 2028–2029.

Have a great week!

View the complete Value Picks Tracker →